The Trail of Mistakes to Nuclear War
by Daniel Ben Abraham
12.12.20223
With Putin desperate to weaken American support for Ukraine, he decided to form the closest military alliance with Iran the two nations have ever had. China’s Xi thoughtlessly followed suit, believing anything that harms the U.S. is in his interest. Both these global strategic mistakes will make their partner Iran nearly sanction-proof in advancing its weapons capabilities.
Putin made the mistake of invading Ukraine, not realizing NATO would unite to oppose him. Biden made the mistake of unintentionally showing Putin a green light, taking no military action for months while Putin amassed 150,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Biden not calling Putin throughout the length of the war was a mistake, as was having Boris Johnson reject Russia’s peace offer just weeks into the war. Taking advantage of NATO’s risky opportunity to try to weaken Russia was also a mistake. It’s a mistake for Europe to continue buying energy from and selling equipment to Russia, but it’s also probably a mistake for the U.S. to supply most of what Ukraine needs without conditions from Europe, such as at least not working against us. Of course, with policies that cause oil prices to rise, funding both sides of this war is also a mistake.
Such strategic global mistakes have consequences. With Russia and China going against their good judgment and allying with Iran, Iran predictably gained the opportunity it was looking for – a chance to distract the world with a terrorist attack causing a war in Gaza, so it can race toward the bomb. Not long ago, Biden Administration official Colin Kahl, then Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, said Iran would only take days to build a nuclear weapon. Iran is currently understood to be at over 84% enrichment, and will have weapons grade uranium at 90%, any day now.
Of course, Iran’s ultimate goal is not just obtaining a bomb, but regional domination, and Shiite control of Islam’s holiest sites of Mecca and Medina, which would cause the fall of the Saudi Royal Family. The Ayatollah said in 2015 that he wanted to “emancipate” Islam’s holy sites from Saudi control, and now they have the world fooled and are apparently going for it. All one need to do is look at who benefits from this conflict. The Palestinians aren’t benefiting, Hamas isn’t benefitting, and Israel isn’t benefitting. Iran is.
On December 10th, Netanyahu told Putin in a 50-minute long meeting that his cooperation with Iran is dangerous, and to cut ties with Iran. But Putin is desperate to weaken U.S. support for Ukraine, wrongly assuming consequences he cannot foresee are better than those he can. Iran’s leaders meanwhile, would be happy to cause a nuclear conflict that engulfs the U.S., Russia, and China.
All the Sunni Arab states made the mistake of falling for Iran’s gambit. With a sweet spot for the Palestinians, much of the world fell for the distraction like a dog chasing a tennis ball. Turkey made the mistake of allying with Iran thinking it would gain an advantage regarding their mutual aim of weakening the Kurds, and it is also threatening to join the war in Gaza, like Algeria. While the Arabs are ready to fight tooth and nail over the Palestinians, their nations will ultimately fall under the control of the Ayatollah for their blunder. Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states could have accepted Palestinian refugees to ease the conflict, but don’t, to maximize it instead. In the United Nations, everyone’s asleep, and simply focused on Israel and the Palestinians instead of thinking ahead. The riots in Europe have each country distracted, and they will all soon also be within Iranian nuclear missile range. Israel has been the only thing standing between not only Iran and Sunni Arab states, but Europe also. And the Palestinians, also mistaken, being Sunni, yet entrusting themselves to Shiite-backed Hamas.
Biden sent two aircraft carrier groups to address escalations, but apparently insisted that Israel will not expand the conflict in exchange for U.S. military support, preventing removal of Hamas leadership outside Gaza, and ensuring the conflict continues. The U.S. has also been working on freeing $6 billion and another $10 billion in frozen funds to Iran, potentially funding both sides of this war also. U.S. voters and media made a mistake also, not realizing how much Biden would run a continuation of Obama’s disastrous Iran-empowering Middle East policy, and his feud with Putin. Biden’s measured tit for tat responses also ensure that no party has anything to fear from a U.S. overreaction, and such intentional predictability ensures that this war also continues, and escalates. Making sure wars are endless appears to be an art form. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah is looking to escalate, and the Houthis in Yemen are escalating from firing missiles and drones, to now a declared blockade of all ships to Israel.
Escalations will continue as long as there is gain from doing so, and little risk. Now, all Iran has to do, is increase the instability. The more chaos in the world, the more it benefits. Too bad the Iranian people didn’t rise up and claim their independence on October 6th.
Daniel Ben Abraham is the author of The PeaceMatrix™ Volume 1: The Mission to Implement the World’s Most Revolutionary Peace-Building System and Stop WWIII, and soon to be released, Volume 2. More at www.danielbenabraham.com
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Also available on the Times of Israel at https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-trail-of-mistakes-to-nuclear-war/